Tuesday, May 25, 2010

The Folly of Projecting Ahead

This post is inspired by frequent posts career on JDUnderground.com. http://www.qfora.com/jdu/thread.php?threadId=10893#post144413

The posts take the pattern "I hate occupation X (legal). I think I should goto occupation of (insert occupation: Nursing, Construction, Finance..." Because of a real or perceived shortage and currently available jobs.

This seems to be the trend. Posters/People stand here(today) and look there(tomorrow). The general problem is the landscape changes. When I was in high school there was supposed to be a shortage of accountants. So, when I went to college I studied accounting. The college powers-that-be took the requirement of Engineering Calculus away, then everyone flowed into accounting. By the time I got into the field there were no jobs. There was also a shortage in the legal field until they went from 100 to 200+ law schools in a 25 to 30 year period. Ten years ago there was a projected nursing shortage. To increase the nursing occupation's size: class size, online schools, schools, and nursing immigrants numbers were increased. I think the next bubble will be financial and construction workers. Don't goto a shortage occupation. By the time you get to "there"; it will be gone.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

There was no shortage of lawyers 30 years ago. I have studied the economic history of the legal profession in both the U.S. and the U.K. It has been a tough racket all the way back to the 1800's.

Like Franklin quipped, any town that cannot support one lawyer can always support two.